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2010 Grand National Preview

Welcome to the pre race preview of the runners in this years Grand National.

Over the next few days I will be previewing all horses in the race. I am starting this preview with the horses at the top of the betting market and will be adding more daily.
All horses will be previewed before the race and I hope that this will help to give you a concise view of the horses previous form to help with your selection.
Please call back regularly and once you have made your selection why not post it on the guest book.

Runner Preview: -

MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 9-11-10 R David Pipe

Really good chaser this who fell at the Canal Turn on his only try at this race in 2008. An improved horse since then and well thought of by connections. Would be a very popular winner but has to burden top weight in this ever more competitive race. The last horse to win with a weight like this was Red Rum so he has it all to do today. One thing in his and others favour at the top of the handicap is that the handicapper is now compressing the handicap and horses at the top of the handicap do not have to give away so much weight to the unexposed horses lower in the handicap. This of course is to encourage better horses to take part in the race. A winner of the Hennessey Gold cup in 2008 shows that this horse has class and perhaps it is his good running in races that work against him in this race as it keeps his handicap mark high. He is a horse that travels well in a race and likes to front run. This is good for the National as it can keep you out of trouble. I would love to recommend this horse to you today and he would be a very popular winner of the race for his followers, connections and especially his jockey Tom Scudamore who gets on really well with this horse and is a jockey who does not get enough credit for his skills, but his massive weight burden may well be the biggest problem he has to overcome today.
Wins have come on ground ranging from good to heavy.

MON MOME 10-11-07 Venetia Williams

Last Years winner at an insulting price of 100/1 and comes back to defend his title. A real good long distance chaser who has trouble keeping up with the pace in shorter races which could be seen in his run in the Gold Cup last month when he came from a long way back when other horses were running out of steam he came through to finish a creditable 3rd. The stats say that horses don't come back to win again with the last horse to do so being Red Rum who was an exceptional horse around this track, however the handicapper does not treat past winners with quite the same vigour that he used to. Add the crushing of the handicap to this and Mom Mome could buck the trend of the last 30 or so years. His run in 2008 also had a lot os class where he showed the cleverness of his jumping, something needed to with this race. Other than his first run in the Hennessey Mon Mome has run well this season with this as his target. I would have liked him to miss the Cheltenham festival this season and then to come here with a little more recovery time under his belt and then he would have been very attractive with just 6 lbs more to carry than last year. Still one with a good chance and barring any mishaps should make the frame.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good/Sft to Heavy.

VIC VENTURI (IRE)  10-11-06 Dessie Hughes

Good solid 10 year old chaser who has good solid credentials. Showed a liking for these fences when winning this seasons Becher Chase over this course back in November. 8th in last seasons Irish National and has seemed to have had this race in mind since then. Has run in hurdle races this season and this seems to be the way that a lot of trainers keep horses fresh for this race nowadays. Won the Bobby Jo chase in February beating Black Apalachi while getting 5 lbs from him. (they meet on level terms today). Good horse from a good stable.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good to Heavy.

BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 11-11-06 Dessie Hughes

Unseated his rider in 2008 and than fell in last years race, this horse carrying 11st 6lbs does not seem to be well treated by the handicapper. Another Irish contender, his fine win in the Becher chase last season over these fences where he was 74 lengths in front of his nearest rival looks really good form. Lightly raced this season with this race in mind, just one outing over hurdles and then he re-contested the Bobby Jo chase at Fairyhouse, a race he won last season and this year came second. Could be the best of the Irish raiders and a strong market move should not be underestimated.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Yielding to Heavy.

JOE LIVELY (IRE)  11-11-06 Colin Tizzard

A good chaser this 11 year old. A past winner of the Feltham Novice chase at the November Cheltenham meeting. But looks to have plenty on his plate here today from quite a big weight. 4th in the 2008 Mildmay chase at this course behind Big Buck and Albertas Run. Despite running well in big races this horse always seems to come up against a few too good in the race. Runs this season include 10th in the Hennessey behind Denman, 10th in a listed event at Cheltenham behind The Package and 14th of 24 at the festival in the William Hill Trophy. Acts on any ground and the trip should not be a problem. He would be more fancied if lower in the weights and seems to have a lot on his plate today.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good / Firm to heavy.

DON'T PUSH IT (IRE)  10-11-05 Jonjo O'Neill

Winner of last years John Smiths cup at this course but did not run so well in the Old Roan chase at the start of this season. Has been lightly run this season as this race has been his target. Champion jockey A.P.McCoy has chosen this horse over all the others that he had the choice of riding and therefore he will be well backed because of this. Second to Denman and also he did beat Mr. Pointment in his novice days. Acts on most types of going and sure to give you a run for your money. Not definite to stay but nothing suggests that he wont stay at the pace that this race will be run at as he has run well at 3m 3f (held up) when tried and could just be at his peak.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good to Soft.

COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 11-11-05 David Pipe

Fantastic horse this winner in 2008 and runner up last year and that was the highlight of his season. Once again trained with just this race in mind you can disregard his races this year as he started with a hurdle race and then finished 13 of 24 at the festival. Sure to come on from that race and was not given a hard time. Very unusual for horses to come back and win National with Red Rum the last horse to do this over 30 years ago, however a stronger contender you could not wish for. Carrying a pound less than last year he has been given a chance by the handicapper. This is in contrast to Hedgehunter who was given 11st 12lbs when runner up following his win and also 11st 12lbs the following year. Red Rum who did come back after winning his second National off 12st won again two years later carrying 11st 8lbs. Connections think the horse is fit and well and it would be no surprise to see him running really well and making the frame again. He has everything in his favour should go well especially if the ground dries out as expected.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good / firm to Soft.

TRICKY TRICKSTER (IRE) 7-11-04 Paul Nicholls

First class young consistent performer who has only twice been out of the frame in his short 10 run career. Well thought of at home and from the champion trainers stable. A past winner of the National Hunt Challenge cup at the festival he comes here on the back of a good 9th place in the Gold Cup and a win in the AON chase earlier this year. Must have more improvement to come but at 7 this race may be coming too early in his career. (last 7 year old to win was in Boskar in 1940)
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good/Soft to Soft.

NICHE MARKET (IRE)  9-11-04 Bob Buckler

A good young horse who has put up some good performances. Not a prolific winner having won only two of his 19 starts but comes here the winner of last seasons Irish National. He will be asked to carry much more weight than he did in that race but has enough scope to carry that today. He ran in this seasons Hennessey and his good performance was perhaps overlooked as all eyes were on the impressive Denman that day but he showed that he has some class about him. Well fancied but perhaps just a little too high in the weights?
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good to Good/Soft.

MADE IN TAIPAN (IRE) 8-11-04 Tom Mullins

A good novice last year who has not managed to win in his first season out of novice company despite putting in some really good runs. his second in the Ladbrokes.com Fortria Chase at Navan behind Big Zeb was a good run and they were both a long way in front of the third horse, he then followed that up with a 4th in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown, but then he was disappointing in the Irish Hennessey Gold Cup at Leopardsdown where he finished last of the 7 runners. He has bounced back since at the same course as well as a good second in a grade 3 at Navan. The main problem is that he is better at shorter distances and all his wins have been at distances less that two and a half miles. There is a theory that two and a half mile horses stay this marathon trip as they seem to get a second wind half way through the race but this is not held up to examination in the last few years with all winners having form over longer distances and therefore I think this horse has too much to overcome in this race.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good to Heavy.

DREAM ALLIANCE  9-11-03 Philip Hobbs

This seasons Welsh National winner comes here after having been pulled up in February in the Blue Square at Haydock. A horse with class who for some reason just stops in some of his races and has now had to be pulled up 4 times in his last 7 races. When on song the horse runs really well but this is a worry. Second to Denman in the 2007 Hennessey shows that the horse has class. If on a going day I would recommend this horse as I would not be at all surprised to see him in the frame and perhaps win but he could just as easily run way below form.
Wins have come on ground ranging from good /Soft to Heavy.

CLOUDY LANE  10-11-03 Donald McCain Jnr

Only 10 years old, this horse seems to have been around for a long time. Joint Fav in 2008 when he ran really well and finished 6th. Last year he seemed to be going well when he blundered at the biggest fence in the race, The Chair, and unseated his rider. He also unseated his rider in the 2007 Irish National but don't get the impression that this horse is a poor jumper because he is not. A winner of the Peter Marsh at Haydock last season and he seems to run a lot at Haydock and runs well. Horses that run well at Haydock often also do well at Aintree. Comes from the famous Red Rum stable of the McCain's although “Ginger's” son is now in charge they know what it takes to win this race with 4 wins notched up to the stable.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good to Heavy.

NOZIC (FR)   9-11-03 Paul Nicholls

A French import to the powerful Paul Nicholls yard who ran up some good performances before taking over a year off.. On his return in October 2008 he started unceremoniously by unseating his rider at Aintree. He soon brushed this off by winning the Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase where he had Cloudy Lane and State of Play in behind him. After this he went off the boil before coming back to some form in this seasons Welsh National finishing 9th. He has not been seen out since then (27th December) presumably to keep him fresh for this race. If back to his best he could run really well here and would not be a surprise if got into the frame but there is a lot to take on trust.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good to Heavy.

MY WILL (FR)   10-11-02 Paul Nicholls

Despite running poorly in the Hennessey he was aimed at the Gold cup and therefore it is difficult to assess his races this year. He finished 7th in the Gold Cup and made some jumping errors and this is what has dogged his career. He makes mistakes in his races and seems more of a lazy horse rather than a poor jumper. Aintree forgives horses of this type as the fences, although big, long and wide do allow horses to brush through the top of them and this was shown last year when this horse finished 3rd. Aintree is such a unique course that form on the course stands for a lot and his great run last year stands him in good stead for this year. With a good round of jumping I could see the horse winning even through he is a pound or two higher than ideal. Last season he had the stables first jockey Ruby Walsh riding and if he rides again this year than would be a big positive.
Wins have come on ground ranging from good to Soft.

PABLO DU CHARMIL (FR) 9-11-02 David Pipe

Another French import who came here an did well for his first season and then found things tougher. All his wins have come at 2 miles or below and therefore should have problems with the distance in this race. A win especially from this weight would be a surprise.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good / Firm to Soft.

BALLYHOLLAND (IRE) 9-11-00   Colin McBratney

Nice enough young horse who has won a point-to-point over 3miles but is essentially a two and a half mile horse. Has not really run well enough at this distance to show that he will be in the shake up today despite having attracted some money. This would be due to his fine win in the Galway Plate however this has shot him up the ratings and has given him more weight to carry. Could be one of those “Irish Dark horses”?
Wins have come on ground ranging from Firm to Heavy.

BACKSTAGE (FR)  8-11-00 Gordon Elliott

EX -pointer formally trained by Evan Williams in South Wales now trained in Ireland by Gordon Elliott. Came raiding to new racecourse, Ffos Las last August to win a valuable 3m 1f+ chase. A progressive and consistent horse who at 8 should have plenty more improvement in him, however he has been running below this class of race. Had a good run in the Foxhunters over this course last year finishing 8th so should like the course and will have a stone less to carry than the 12st all foxhunters have to carry. Could be anything really and one to watch if there is a strong market move.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good to Heavy.

BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 9-11-00 Nigel Twiston-Davies

A good long distance chaser who has two ways of running. Brilliantly or terribly. There is clearly something going on with this horse either in his body or his head it is not clear which. One thing for sure when he gets it right he is very good as shown in his running of the WBXTRIPLECROWN.COM Rehearsal Chase Handicap where he won quite easily and also in his winning of the freebets.co.uk Free Bets Handicap Chase at Chepstow with ease. If you bet this horse you may not even get a run for your money but if he decides to put his best foot forward then he could be a winner. This seasons form figures are 1p1pp. One things for sure if you do decide this is your bet then at least bet another horse or quite quickly you could be out of the race.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good to Soft.

PREISTS LEAP (IRE)  10-11-00 Tom O'Leary

A good horse who was 14th in this race last year off 11st 5lbs. He made a mistake late on in the race and then got tired. Not a prolific winner (4 from 36) but has got some good scalps under his belt. He beat Chelsea Harbour in a Grade A chase at Gowran Park and also Black Appalachi over the same distance at the same course. At 10 should be at the peak of his career but may need improvement to win this race. Needs real soft ground to show his best.
Wins have come on ground ranging from soft / Heavy.

SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 10-10-13 Willie Mullins

At first glance the way that this horse finished the race in 9th position last year, looking tired and hanging left at the final fences you might think that the horse does not stay especially as he has not won at a distance greater than 3 miles however he finished a really good third in 2008. His experience will help him this year as well as the fact that he has to carry less weight than in both of his previous attempts. A good horse who runs well here but there are others with more appeal, however a good run would not be totally unexpected. An Irish raider do not and therefore don't overlook a move in the betting market for the horse.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good to Heavy.

CAN'T BUY TIME (IRE) 8-10-13 Jonjo O'Neill

A good chaser in his early days but one who perhaps has not quite lived up to his potential. Made a mistake at the first fence last year and then never really got going again before being pulled up at the 18th fence. If back to his younger form he could run well but his stable jockey has chosen another horse over him.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good to Soft.

BIG FELLA THANKS 8 10-12 D. Paul Nicholls

Ran well in last years race after making a mistake at Bechers on the first circuit to finish 6th. Started this season with a good second in heavy ground at Newbury to the smart Curruthers and was then unlucky to slip up on landing in his follow up race (when not in contention). A winner of this last run on Good / Soft at Newbury in early March. A well thought of horse who did not run at the festival with this race in mind. This horse is lightly raced and consistent only ever being out of the first three on three occasions in his career. Comes from the champion jumps trainers stable of Paul Nicholls who is still to win this race. Favourite at the time of writing and should give likely jockey Ruby Walsh a good ride. Running off a good racing weight and likely to be there or there abouts at the end.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good/Sft to Heavy.

STATE OF PLAY  10-10-11 Evan Williams

Extremely good run last year finishing 4th. State of Play is a good horse with some fine form. Has only had one run this season so far and that was back in November when he pulled up in the race. The reports are that the horse is fit and well at home and as the horse runs well when fresh the omens seem good however in the last dozen or so years horses have not won from a long lay off and the longest lay of has been 44 days. I would guess that this race needs so much stamina that a horse needs to be racing fit, that said I do remember Mely Moss almost getting the better of Papillon in 2000 on his first run of the season. Carrying less weight than last year so as long as he is fit and the ground is not too heavy, he has a good chance of making the frame again and who knows?
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good/Firm to Good/Soft.

CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 10-10-11 John Quinn

This horse has recently changed ownership and in a funny quirk has been bought by the same owners who bought 1992 winner Party Politics only a short time before he won the great race. Character Building is a good horse who seems has been trained with this race in mind this year. He did run at the festival but could finish only 12 in the William Hill trophy and that may not have taken too much out of him. He was third behind Denman in the 2007 Hennessey but was pulled up when tried in the Scottish National, however that was run on fast ground that day. He has a good racing weight and could run well today.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good/Firm to Good/Soft.

ELLERSLIE GEORGE (IRE) 10-10-10 Nick Mitchell

Nice 10 year old chaser who looks to have plenty to do today. Last of eight finishers in the 2008 Becher chase the horse looked like he hated these fences that day and would have been pulled up if not for the perseverance of his jockey. His best run was in the Badger Ales chase at Wincanton last November where he had The Tother One and The Package in behind but failed to follow that up with a poor run in the Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot and also with a poor run at Newbury in March.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Firm to Good / Soft.

ERIC'S CHARM (FR)  12-10-09 Oliver Sherwood

Good 12 year old horse who comes here in good form on the back of two recent wins. Stormed home by 19 lengths in the betinternet.com London National Chase over 3m 7f in December. Then stayed on really well to win the Blue Square Supporting Greatwood Veterans' Handicap Chase last month over 3m 2f+. A good horse who needs a reasonable pace to show his good stamina and finishing power at the end of the race. He should get a steady pace here today. He can also hit the odd fence but his mistakes could be the type that he will get away with on this course. This looks like one of the better outsiders to me and looks likely to make the frame.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good to Good / Soft.

KING JOHNS CASTLE (IRE) 11-10-09 Arthur Moore

I was well impressed by this horses run in the race in 2008 when he finished a really good 2nd. This surprised me as the horse seems to be much better at shorter distances as despite winning a point-to-point over 3 miles his wins under rules have all been short of two and a half miles. The horse had almost a year off after that run and does not look to be the force that he once was. Despite having a good racing weight he seems to have it all to do this year.
Wins have come on ground ranging from yielding to soft.

CONNA CASTLE (IRE)  11-10-09 Jimmy Mangan

Past winner of the Powers Gold cup grade 1 at Fairyhouse back in March 2008 and that was his last win. A good horse over a shorter trip and best around two and a half miles. Although he has won point-to-points at three miles in his younger days I think he will struggle to finish at this marathon trip in this class of race.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good to Heavy.

BALLYFITZ   10-10-09 Nigel Twiston-Davies

A good hurdler who looks to be a quite handy chaser. Tends to make the odd mistake in his races and then has trouble getting back into the race. This was the case on his last run in the Pertemps Final a hurdle race at the festival. However perhaps a better race to look at was his run in the Welsh National this season where he hit the 12th fence but had time to get back into the race and finished a good 5th. He has only won two chases and both were novice chases but he did beat Big Fella Thanks at Cheltenham in November 2008 so he does have some ability in chases but as he is a good hurdler seems to split his time and often reverts to hurdles which is a shame. From a good stable and it would not be a total surprise if he ran well today.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good to Heavy.

OLLIE MAGERN  12-10-09 Nigel Twiston-Davies

A really good chaser this horse. A winner of the Feltham chase and also a dual winner of the Charlie Hall Chase. Has not won a race since November 2007 and is not the force of old. Fell at the second fence last year and should get further this year. He would be a popular winner and if the ground had been firmer he would have been only one of a handful to handle it but it's difficult to see him making the frame this year.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good /Firm to Soft.

ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 8-10-08 Willie Mullins IRE

Looks to be the better of the Irish challengers this year from the powerful stable of Willie Mullins. Winner of a three mile chase at Punchestown in April 2008 on good ground where he had Black Apalatchi beaten in behind. Then started the 2008/2009 season with a good win on soft at Fairyhouse over one furlong shorter. Had a good season but was disappointing in the Irish National (14th) at the end of the season. Trained with this race in mind this season and could be in with a shout if running to form however the owners retained jockey looks to have chosen another horse over this one and that would be a negative. He has a good racing weight and will like the ground but may still have a little to find with others in the race.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good to Heavy.

MALJIMAR (IRE)  10-10-08 Nick Williams

Nice 10 year old chaser who is well weighted for this race. Comes here on the back of a good 3rd in the cross country race at Cheltenham which suggests that he might like the variety of fences that he will face here. This horse looks to be at the top of his game at present and is higher rated now than he has ever been. He will still have to improve but if he takes to the course and fences he could be one to run well. Difficult to recommend this horse on his past form but not one to rule out after the good cross country run.
Wins have come on ground ranging from good /Firm to good /Soft.

THE PACKAGE  7-10-07    David Pipe

A really good young consistent horse who comes here after to great runs at Cheltenham. The first in December when he beat the smart The Tother One and then a second at the Festival in the William Hill Trophy when a short head to Chief Dan George. The main problem with this horse is he is a 7 year old and horses this young don't win the National with the last 7 year old winner being in 1940. A good horse but this race is a little too early for him.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good/Firm to Soft.

PIRAYA (FR)   7-10-07 David Pipe

Another French import and these horses often do well in their first season in this country but he is too young at 7 and also has not won a race over 2m 4f+ so stands little chance today on the form book.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good/Firm to Soft.

IRISH RAPTOR (IRE)  11-10-07 Nigel Twiston-Davies

Good winner of last seasons Topham on this course over 2m 5f would perhaps suggest speed horse rather than stayer but most of this horses wins have come at 3m+. Disappointing to see him fall in the Becher chase in November at the 2nd fence. Has unseated 6 times in career which might suggest that the horse may not be suited to the different types of fences that he will see in this race. On the positive side he comes from a stable that has won the this race twice before as well as Scottish and Welsh Nationals. Looks like he has a bit to do today and has plenty of weight but should not be written off by any means.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good to Heavy.

MR POINTMENT (IRE)  11-10-07 Paul Murphy

By far the best of the really big price outsiders in my opinion. Winner of the Becher chase over these fences in 2007 but was then pulled up at the end of the National that season. Good second in the Becher the following year giving the winner Black Alapachi over a stone. He has not reproduced these efforts since but changed stables from Paul Nicholls to Paul Murphy and had one run in the Gold cup for the new trainer and did not make much of a show but then did not have a hard race either. I would not be surprised if this horse made the frame.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good to Soft.

PALYPSO DE CREEK (FR) 7-10-06 Charlie Longsdon

French import running in his first season in this country. Good 4th in the Becher Chase this season and looked as if these fences were no problem to him. Loves soft ground and if the course turned into a bog anything could happen. Despite a good run in the Peter Marsh in January when 2nd he must improve to be in the shake up here. Also another 7year old and 7 year old have a poor winning record in the National.
Wins have come on ground ranging from good to Heavy.

HELLO BUD (IRE)  12-10-06 Nigel Twiston-Davies

Winner of last years Scottish National means that he has the credentials to take part in this race. Ran a creditable 5th in the Becher back in November but he ran out of steam at the end of the race but at least showed that he did not dislike these fences. Has been a little in and out of form since. He was badly hampered in the Welsh National so his unseating would not be cause for concern however he was weakening at the time. Has won over 3m6f 3m7f and 4miles so stamina can not be in doubt but has weakened in the last 4 runs this season including Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup at the festival. Could be that at 12 years old he is not the force he was last year but may just have one more big performance in him. He would be a very popular winner.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good / Firm to Heavy.

FLINTOFF (USA)  9-10-05 Venetia Williams

Reasonable 9 year old horse. Best form was in the Midlands national last season when he came a really good second behind Russian Trigger. Has been tried in the Irish national in 2006 and he finished 6th also tried the Scottish national a month later when he finished 3rd. He should get the trip. From the stable that won the race with a 100/1 winner last year. Looks to have been laid out for the race but has not run for 103 days and his lack of race fitness would be a worry. Only one run this year and that was when pulled up in the Welsh national.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good to Heavy.

ABBEYBRANEY (IRE)  9-10-05 Howard Johnson

Lightly raced 9 year old who was only 4 lengths behind the smart Barbers Shop in Blue Square Casino Future Stars Chase in December 2008. Has good consistent form if at a little below this class. Only 1 of his three wins have been at 3m1f and was pulled up last time when tried at 4 miles at the festival so not guaranteed to get the trip.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good to Heavy.

SILVER BIRCH (IRE)  13-10-05 Gordon Elliott IRE

November 2004 Winner of the Becher Chase
December 2004 winner of the Welsh National
April 2007 Grand National Winner
This list tells you that the horse has long distance chasing class. Fell last year when going well enough. Has been running with credit in cross country events. Sure to give a good account but can't defy 90 years of stats and win at 13 even off this low weight can he? Owes nothing to connections and nothing to the watching public. Just need to see him come home safe. Another who would be a popular winner.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good to Heavy.

CERIUM (FR)   9-10-05 Paul Murphy

*** SECOND RESERVE **** 5th in last years race one place in front of today's fav. Big Fella Thanks. If he gets a run in the race he could be an interesting runner. Only had one run this season and that was last month at the festival where he ran in the gold cup and finished 8th. Look to have plenty to do however to win this as his wins have all come at a distance short of 2 and a half miles.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good to Heavy.

ROYAL ROSA (FR)  11-10-05 Howard Johnson

*** Third Reserve *** Good hurdler who has not carried the form to Fences. Only won once over fences and that was back in 2006. Best distance chase form was 6th in the 2008 Scottish National. Has plenty to do here.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good to Heavy.

KNOWHERE (IRE)  12-10-04 Nigel Twiston-Davies

*** Fourth reserve *** Three previous runs in this race
2007 UR
2008 UR
2009 PU
12 year old now and thee is nothing to suggest that he can be in with a shout here.. He would be a surprise winner.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Good to Soft.



WHINSTONE BOY (IRE) 9-10-04 Jimmy Mangan ***NON RUNNER ****

Well supported Irish trained horse by Grand National winning trainer Jimmy Mangan (Monty's Pass 2003). Winner of the Tendrleen Thyestes Handicap Chase over three miles in January. Raced mainly in Ireland and one run outside was in a hurdle race here where he was disappointing. Could have improvement to come and would have to improve on what he has shown on a racecourse to be in with a chance of winning this race. Loves soft and heavy ground and will be one to watch if Aintree turns into a bog.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Yielding to Heavy.

CHIEF DAN GEORGE (IRE) 10-10-02 Jimmy Moffatt **** NOON-RUNNER ****

Comes here bang in form on the back of two fine wins, sportingbet.com Veterans' Handicap Chase at Doncaster over three miles and most recently in the William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase at the festival where he had The package, The Tother one, Character Building and also Comply or Die in behind. Weighted lightly here and could well have a chance if the Cheltenham race did not take too much out of him. Has a really good racing weight here and it would be a shame is the Cheltenham race put paid to his run in this race Most of his wins have come at around 3m+ but seemed to run out of steam in the Scottish National last year on good ground. Would not be a surprise to see him fade after three and a half miles due to the Cheltenham race but equally not a surprise if he made the frame. Would also need 15 horses above him to be withdrawn to get in the race.
Wins have come on ground ranging from Firm to Heavy.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

Well that's it your final list of runners. Please note that there should be only 40 runners so the reserves will only be called on if there are others that are pulled out of the race.
If there are more than 4 pulled from the race then there will be less than 40 runner but this is unlikely.
I would just like to give some facts on the race for anyone who is not familiar with horse racing.
HANDICAP
The first is that the Grand National is a handicap race. All horses that have raced a number of times are given a handicap rating by the official handicapper. In a handicap race it is the handicappers job to give all the runners an equal chance i.e. make all horses finish in a line in a dead heat. Of course this never happens as horses improve and horses run below par and of course the handicapper gets it wrong.
In a handicap race, horses have to carry weight in relation to their handicap mark so the best horse (with highest handicap rating) carries the most weight and the poorest horse (with the lowest mark) carried the least weight with all the others somewhere in between.

STATISTICS
Some races seem to bear out past form statistics year after year and the Grand national is no exception. Because of changing factors (course and ratings etc.) the statistics that count year on year will also change but the Grand National does seem to follow form statistics, some for many years and some just in recent years. I will set out a few for you below but you should make up your mind what you think are the important ones and ones you can safely ignore:-

1.AGE – The last horse to win the Grand National below 8 years old was Boskar in 1940 and the last 13 year old was Sargent Murphy in 1923
2.DISTANCE – All winners in the last 10 years have won over a distance of at least three miles in their career.
3.WEIGHT – No winner in the last 10 years has carried more than 11st 1lbs.
4.JUMPING ABILLITY – No winner in the last 10 years has fallen more than 3 times in their career.
5.HORSE COLOUR – The last Gray horse to win was Nicholas Silver in 1961
6.PAST WINNERS – Past winners have a poor record with the last past winner to repeat his victory was Red Rum in 1974 and 1977 Before that you have to go back to 1935 / 1936, however past winners do very often run well in the following year.
Below I have set out a table with some of the relevant statistics for this race for you and it is my hope that you will find this easier to read than some of the newspaper information.


Stats_Information


One more thing. The Grand National is a great sporting spectacle and is to be enjoyed. The enjoyment of the race in enhanced by having a wager on the race.
However never bet more than you can comfortably loose and you will keep the fun element in the race.
And Finally.........
I wish you something that with all the information the world at you finger tips you can't reply on or buy, Good Luck. We all will need it !




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